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Human Development Technological Prognoses
Категория: Пища | Новость от: Admin | 27-12-2005

G. Ohanian's ideas on technological development of mankind found reflection in the series of his lectures for technologists, managers and business people, under title "Technologies", (2000) and in an extended version in the monograph "Technology on the eve of 21-st century". These papers attempt to analyze the causes and cradles of technological leadership of Europe and the USA.
The author concludes that there were just a couple of inventions though that played the key role. These include: I) the horseshoe and a new horse-collar that enabled to broadly utilize horse in agricultural activities; II) water- and windmills; III) watch; IV) book printing. These provided prerequisites for development of technological power of Europe and the USA on that base, and ensured a leading position for them all over the world in the course of the last centuries. The bases for such a might were founded in 10-13 centuries. It was printing only that became commonplace after 13-th century. He stresses that the majority of these inventions in their original form were not` made in Europe but all they became commonplace there. The author considers the main reason of the technological progress to be the psychological readiness of broad strata of population to accept and introduce inventions. Now, with a new technological epoch advancing, the previous achievements and current economic might do not produce special advantages on a new start. Again, psychological readiness of people towards accepting and introducing inventions becomes highly important.

As the author says, the mankind has, throughout the 20-th century, improved and extended the scientific inventions of the 19-th century. This however entails depletion of natural resources and ecological catastrophes.

The time has come for fundamentally new technologies that could destroy thriving industries although meeting higher ecological requirements. Besides, the new technology is more beneficial to introduce at new production capacities because reconstruction of the old one may be costlier.

For a gradual preparation of manufacturers and consumers, the author provides technological predictions for the next 10 years for each sector of production and seeks for compromise settlements for a sustainable development.

The industrial development often pushed out the obsolete technologies that, as he thinks, might quite often have marked advantages. The author himself deals with rehabilitation and improvement of technologies for foodstuffs of different nations that could be used as immune stimulators.

He carries on searching points of contact between various areas of knowledge about the human that are expressed both in science (psychology, physiology, medicine, biology, etc) and alternatively in religion, everyday life and practice.

He believes that this knowledge and respective intellectual schemes (paradigms) not always replace each other in the time, but often co-exist in both the society and inner every individual. A lack of aspiration for reducing their conflicts drives a man to a self-conflict, to a conflict with people, environment, to mutual destruction and overall collapse. A way out of this situation may, as he contemplates, be in a prompt introduction of principally new technologies while rehabilitating the old, forgotten ones that could promote a sustainable development of the world. Relying on these considerations, he proposes concrete ways of determining priorities of technological development for individual sub-regions.

According to his definition, the scientific mind in the beginning of the new millennium should more often come out of general ideas to private solutions of concrete issues. For this, there needs to emerge a more explicit approach to the general ideas irrespective of the difficulty in this problem.

Author: Mr. Gagik Z. Ohanian
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