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ARMENIA`s FIVE-YEAR ECONOMIC SANATION CONCEPT NOTE
Категория: Новости |
Новость от: admin |
15-11-2019
This “Concept note of the five-year restoration of Armenia`s Economy” is a concept and needs to be further substantiated from the perspective of professional economics.
1. As the main premise, I concept looks at the current socio-economic situation of the Republic of Armenia (RA), the characteristic features of which are:
1.1. Lack of social infrastructure, which in turn is the result of the activation of subcultures. In Armenian conditions, subcultures are ethnic pagans (Yezidis, Kurds and Bosh), denominations, and, as the outgrowth of the previous two ones, the criminal community.
1.2. Taking into account the mass emigration of the intellectual part of the Armenian society over the past 10-15 years, the RA has lost the social basis of its civil society, which ensured the functioning of the state at the nation level. With the fragmentation of the remaining society into subcultural formations in the Republic of Armenia, the subcultural tribal unions, which mercilessly drained the rest of the economic resources inherited from the times of the USSR and were earmarked for the benefir of the entire population, began to consolidate intensively over the existence of the Third Republic (since1991). The result of this process was the provincialization of the capital and the formation of a city-state (polis) in an antique manner.
1.3. In the aftermath of the emigration of the intellectual part of the Armenian population and the disintegration of civil society into subcultural clan formations took place the the destruction of the connecting socio-political link ensuring the continuity of generations, i.e. transfer of knowledge and experience of public administration. The result of this process was two negatives: qualified personnel shortage and the lack of a coherent program of economic development. Moreover, in the context of a global knowledge economy, the ignorance of the Armenian economy means only that the RA is a default state or a stillborn state.
1.4. The final result of the above-mentioned destructive socio-economic and political-ideological processes was the formation of anti-nation on the territory of the Republic of Armenia, which ipso facto means that the Republic of Armenia currently is not a nation-state with consequences in terms of the international status of the RA, for the Third Republic resembles more an object than a subject of international relations.
2. Taking account of the aforesaid reasons and with a view to empower the crumbles of civil society , I propose a consistent and effective program for the restoration of economic activity of the Republic of Armenia. This program , when in force, will drastically enhance the potentiality of the RA as a dependable EU partner and not the stooge as it is at present.
2.1. It is obvious that the accumulated foreign debt of the Republic of Armenia is the result of the absence of any social policy, which primarily involves state control over the property, income and employment of specific social groups of the population. In the case of RA, the matter does not come to that, because under conditions of a destroyed social infrastructure, the state is not able to control its territory and human resources, i.e. in fact, is not sovereign.
2.2. In order to restore the economy of Armenia, a key component is the beginning of an intensive immigration policy aimed at settling the territory of the Republic of Armenia with immigrants from the EU countries. For 2 years, it is quite possible to attract 50,000 European entrepreneurs, mainly from a problematic middle layer.
2.3. The immigration policy shall be carried out on the basis of an agreement between the RA and the EU. The selection of immigrants shall be carried out taking into account their economic activities and their compliance with the priorities of the RA economy.
2.4. To start the implementation of this program, it is necessary first of all to work out priority directions of economic development of the Republic of Armenia.
For 2 years it is planned to integrate European entrepreneurs in the Armenian setting, as well as to attract their financial savings in the form of direct investments.
2.5. The most important incentive for the economic activity of European entrepreneurs in Armenia is the lifelong tax exemption for their first generation.
2.6. Taking into account the fact that European production in Armenia should be aimed at exporting, such unprecedented European production in Armenia will allow European manufacturers to ensure the competitiveness of their products in both European and Russian markets, as well as markets stipulated by international conventions.
2.7. In order to harmonize the process, it is envisaged to involve a part of the Armenian medium and large businesses which has established itself as a law-abiding and knowledgeable business. In terms of profit distribution, 80% of such partnerships shall belong to Europeans, while 20% - to the Armenian side. The RA collects taxes from the Armenian side, after which the remaining amount is divided into two parts, one of which must be deposited on target accounts (children, pension, etc.), and the other one is issued to the entrepreneur towards the further development of his business.
2.8. RA takes a certain quota (say 10%) of products in kind from a European manufacturer and then distributes it among target social groups (for example, meals at symbolically low prices at student canteens, etc.). Thus, the state shall be enabled to perform one of its most important functions - pricing and control over the pricing policy of the market. Similarly, the private sector will be given the opportunity to set competitive prices, while the population is given the opportunity to access a wide selection of various goods and services.
3. Russia is satisfied with the influx into the Armenian market of 50,000 potential
consumers with relatively high purchasing power, taking into account the fact that the main share of critical infrastructures of the Republic of Armenia is under Russian control (electricity, communications, etc.).
3.1. The Armenian market is sharply replenished with working capital, which makes it possible to activate credit institutions, but at unheard- of low discount rates (an average of 2% per annum).
3.2. Naturally, a substantive field of activity arises for the secondary securities market, as well as for insurance of European individual and corporate investments.
3.3. From the dead point moves the real estate market.
3.4. Through the implementation of this program a micromodel is being implemented to overcome the conflict situation in the war zone. The EU, the Russian Federation, as well as any other interested state undertakes to guarantee the inviolability of European immigrants, their property and business activities in the Republic of Armenia. It creates a kind of buffer model, which can later be applied, for example, in Turkey, taking into account the sore Kurdish factor whose pernicious implications, deplorably enough, seem to be downplayed by the leading actors of global policy.
3.5. The effect of the proposed program is that the Republic of Armenia is thus restoring its economy at the expense of investments and inventory of European entrepreneurs, which strengthens the position of the Republic of Armenia as a state when negotiating with global credit institutions.
3.6. The implementation of the preparatory work, preparation and processing of the documentary part, the negotiation, and reception and accomodation of entrepreneurs is slated to take no more than 2 years. Over the next 3 years it is expected to issue products in priority areas and ensure their exports to the relevant markets.
3.8. Having created a precedent of planned production, Armenia, starting from the 6-th year, can embark on implementing a program of a regional expansion.
3.9. This socio-economic model, by virtue of its unprecedented nature, serves as a good initiative for the promotion of a regional one, i.e. Transcaucasian economic expansion, to be carried out by attracting large investments from superpowers in order to create an integrated infrastructure throughout the region. For this regional integration plan, a 5-year period seems to be the most effective one, and 50 billion conventional units from each side - a fully justified amount for the five-year period, if we take into account that the participants of the proposed megaproject should be Russia, Europe, USA, Britain, Turkey and of course China. A total of 300 billion targeted expenditures on the creation of a regional (Transcaucasian) integration network of infrastructures for the next five years is a perfectly adequate amount.
Author of the Prposal:
Dr. Tigran Babasyan
Postal address: Republic of Armenia, Yerevan 0012, 28 Grigor Artsruni Street, apt 12, Tigran Babasyan.
Phone: +374 96340176
+374 10267628
E-mail: tbabasyan@mail.ru
Skype: leviticus134
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